To the non-sport types among us, the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are professional basketball teams.
In the 2014-15 season, when playing against each other, the Spurs won 3 regular season games and the Rockets won 1 regular season game. It was the Rockets that won the first game of the four, and the Spurs that won the remaining 3.
In the 2015-16 season, when playing against each other, the Spurs again won 3 regular season games and the Rockets won 1 regular season game. Again, the Rockets won the first game of the four, the Spurs won the remaining 3.
In the 2016-17 season, when playing against each other, the Spurs, yet again, won 3 regular season games and the Rockets won 1 regular season game. And, yet again (ironically), the Rockets won the first game of the four, and the Spurs won the remaining 3.
For the first time in 22 years, the Spurs and the Rockets are playing against each other in the playoffs. In their history, the Rockets have beaten the Spurs all three times they have played each other in the playoffs. As things stand now, the playoff series is tied 2-2. Will the Spurs pull off two more wins to beat the Rockets, as they have in regular season? I have no idea. Will the Rockets repeat history and beat the Spurs in the playoffs, as they have always done thus far? Again, I have no idea.
This is an illustration of why past performance (on the waitlist) cannot predict what will happen to the waitlist in the future. The past doesn't matter. The only thing that matters for a given waitlist is what is happening right now. And that is why the best question to ask a coordinator is not "how far did you get on your waitlist last year," but rather "how likely are you to get to my child's waitlist number?"
In the 2014-15 season, when playing against each other, the Spurs won 3 regular season games and the Rockets won 1 regular season game. It was the Rockets that won the first game of the four, and the Spurs that won the remaining 3.
In the 2015-16 season, when playing against each other, the Spurs again won 3 regular season games and the Rockets won 1 regular season game. Again, the Rockets won the first game of the four, the Spurs won the remaining 3.
In the 2016-17 season, when playing against each other, the Spurs, yet again, won 3 regular season games and the Rockets won 1 regular season game. And, yet again (ironically), the Rockets won the first game of the four, and the Spurs won the remaining 3.
For the first time in 22 years, the Spurs and the Rockets are playing against each other in the playoffs. In their history, the Rockets have beaten the Spurs all three times they have played each other in the playoffs. As things stand now, the playoff series is tied 2-2. Will the Spurs pull off two more wins to beat the Rockets, as they have in regular season? I have no idea. Will the Rockets repeat history and beat the Spurs in the playoffs, as they have always done thus far? Again, I have no idea.
This is an illustration of why past performance (on the waitlist) cannot predict what will happen to the waitlist in the future. The past doesn't matter. The only thing that matters for a given waitlist is what is happening right now. And that is why the best question to ask a coordinator is not "how far did you get on your waitlist last year," but rather "how likely are you to get to my child's waitlist number?"
